Article · data-centre investment

Prepared European sites can benefit from America’s data-centre backlash

The US will remain dominant. Prepared sites in France and the Nordics can compete when the connection date can be underwritten.

The connection test1 GW8.76 TWh at full load for one year
  1. Power capacityat the chosen node
  2. Connection termswith a delivery date
  3. Permissionfor the site and works
  4. Customer commitmentmatched to the load ramp
Deliverable statePowered site on a stated date

Until all four conditions are documented, development expenditure remains exposed because the servers cannot yet earn revenue.

Illustrative investment test. It does not score a country or record a specific project.

Ohio put data-centre politics into a Senate race

On 19 August 2026, Axios reported on a private memorandum from the National Republican Senatorial Committee to leading AI companies. The committee feared that opposition to data centres could cost Republican senator Jon Husted his Ohio race against Democrat Sherrod Brown.1

“If he loses and data centers get the blame, politicians across the country will take notice — and they will not go near the next one.”

Data centres are the physical infrastructure behind cloud services and the current expansion of AI. The United States cannot lead in either field without building many more of them. Ohio’s dispute concerns the electricity system needed to serve those facilities and the terms on which communities will host them.

The warning came from Republicans who support rapid AI construction. Federal policy continued to accelerate data-centre infrastructure as the party asked the industry to deal with a local political problem.

America remains open to new capacity, with developers increasingly required to show that the site and customer are real. They must then accept the financial consequences if the load arrives late.

Ohio is moving early grid risk to the customer

Ohio law authorises complete or partial sales-and-use-tax exemptions for qualifying data-centre equipment. The Department of Taxation estimated forgone state revenue of about $555 million in 2024 and $1.57 billion in 2025.2 The figures concern tax that Ohio did not collect and do not describe cash paid to operators.

House Bill 646 would narrow future incentives and change the treatment of large data-centre loads. It is not law. The House passed a version before the bill returned to the Senate Energy Committee on 10 June 2026.3

A utility starts connection studies before it knows how quickly a large customer will fill the site. It may also order equipment or begin network work against the customer’s expected demand. A cancellation can leave the utility and its other customers exposed unless the contract allocates that cost.

AEP Ohio’s Schedule DCT applies to new or expanded data-centre loads of at least 25 MW. Before energisation, the customer must control the site and pay for studies. The customer must reimburse AEP for its buildout cost after a cancellation or a delay of more than 12 months before the target date.4

The tariff allows a ramp period of up to four years, followed by an eight-year term. Minimum charges apply when actual demand stays below the contracted amount. A customer without the required credit profile must provide collateral equal to half of the total minimum charges.

AEP had received more than 30 GW of initial interest by February 2026. Paid study requests covered 13.0 GW, and signed contracts backed by collateral covered 5.642 GW.5

Developers sometimes apply for several sites because no utility can yet offer the preferred connection date. Other applications are made before the developer controls the land. Paid studies and collateral help AEP decide which network work should proceed, and mature projects benefit when inactive requests leave the queue.

FERC wants quicker connections and firmer commitments

Virginia’s regulator has approved a Dominion rate class for customers at or above 25 MW from January 2027. New contracts will include minimum payments based on contracted demand and a 14-year take-or-pay term.6

FERC opened six proceedings for the regional grid operators under its jurisdiction on 18 June 2026. It asked them to justify their existing large-load tariffs or file reforms that would speed integration.7 The orders address study procedures for co-located and flexible loads. They also require transparent treatment of transmission costs so that other customers are protected from cost shifting.

Executive Order 14318 gives federal agencies a separate instruction to accelerate qualifying AI infrastructure. It covers federal permitting and makes federal sites available for development.8 State utility regulation and the capacity of the local network still apply.

The IEA estimated that the United States accounted for about 45 per cent of global data-centre electricity consumption in 2024. Europe accounted for 15 per cent.9

I would expect an installed market of that size to keep attracting most new projects. It has an established supply chain and a large customer base. The new tariff direction asks developers for stronger commitments, which should make credible projects easier for utilities to identify and connect.

The Commission wants Europe to add capacity

The European Commission proposed the Cloud and AI Development Act, COM(2026) 502 final, on 3 June 2026. Its policy objective is to at least triple EU data-centre capacity within five to seven years.10 The regulation is now in the legislative process and has not been adopted.

The Commission says the EU needs more cloud and data-centre capacity to spread the use of AI. Its draft would require each member state deploying that capacity to designate at least one acceleration zone. The state would consider available and expected grid capacity when choosing the area.

A single information point would guide developers through the zone. An aggregated baseline permit would cover the common assessment, and the remaining permit process would have a 12-month limit after a complete application. The grid company would still have to offer the connection needed by the project.

I would place more weight on the energy provisions than on the name of the zone. Member states would assess the expected electricity demand and use it in network planning. Where demand exceeds available capacity, Article 11 would require fair allocation and bar speculative reservations.11

A site owner can use this framework after a network company has identified a feasible connection. An investable site has to come with land control and a credible grid route. Its permissions and customer commitment must support the same timetable. European policy can help assemble that record before an operator has chosen its final site.

France has prepared a public route to very large sites

The French state and RTE have identified 65 sites for data-centre development. Five fast-track sites sit close to the 400 kV network and can accommodate projects of roughly 400 MW to 1 GW.12 Four of the five had been allocated by the time of Choose France 2026.

CRE’s procedure targets connections in 2028 or 2029. The successful developer receives an offer that reflects the extra connection cost and must follow a specific payment schedule. RTE also requires proof that the project has the technical and financial ability to proceed.

France has gone further than announcing that it welcomes data centres. The host authority has accepted the use, and RTE has assessed the route to a very-high-voltage connection. The developer knows what still has to be delivered before it signs.

RTE had reserved almost 18 GW for about 80 projects by May 2026. Data centres connected to its network for two to three years were using about 20 per cent of the power they had requested.13 Operators expect the load to reach about 80 per cent over ten to fifteen years as they install equipment.

A genuine data-centre project therefore needs a staged connection and room to grow. The French process gives public authorities a way to prepare that route without reserving every requested megawatt for immediate use.

The Nordic market has its own route to a powered site

I see the Nordics as a central part of Europe’s data-centre opportunity. Their route runs through national connection processes. Grid companies and developers use those processes to identify suitable capacity.

Norway’s 2025 strategy calls data centres the heart of digital infrastructure. It identifies renewable electricity and lower cooling demand as reasons why companies choose Norway.14 The strategy also treats AI training as a market opportunity because that work can be located away from the final user.

The Norwegian strategy says data centres are well suited to conditional connections in some locations. Their backup systems can allow consumption to be reduced when the power system requires it. The same facilities can qualify for reserve markets, and Statnett is working with the industry on participation.

Norway’s expected national power surplus through 2030 does not allocate 1 GW at a chosen substation. Grid companies report little unreserved capacity in many areas, so the connection must be assessed at the actual node.

Statnett’s regional plan records about 1,000 MW of data-centre capacity reserved across Agder and South Rogaland. It identifies Agder as one of Norway’s best-positioned regions for large load growth.15

Statnett introduced stricter maturity and progress requirements for consumption projects of at least 100 MW on 1 July 2026. NVE recorded 3,841 MW reserved for data centres across Norway in August.15 A mature developer should welcome rules that move capacity away from projects that have stopped advancing.

Sweden’s government wants the country to lead Europe in climate-smart and competitive computing capacity. Its AI strategy cites access to energy and connectivity as the basis for that ambition.16

Svenska kraftnät said in June that it had cut its connection queue by half in recent years and reduced the time to a preliminary decision by almost 30 per cent. During 2025 and early 2026, it issued preliminary decisions covering more than 5 GW of generation and demand. It has introduced conditional agreements and a capacity map to help customers choose locations.

The pending Swedish connection queue still included 6,984 MW of data-centre requests on 10 August. The figure records developer demand that has not yet reached reserved capacity. Svenska kraftnät’s shorter decision process and capacity map give a developer better information before it chooses a connection point.

Fingrid reported nearly 5 GW in signed data-centre connection agreements on 18 August. It said new industrial investment in northern Finland can connect to the transmission grid on a very rapid schedule, giving Finland a competitive advantage.17

Construction normally begins after a connection agreement, with demand increasing as the operator installs equipment. Fingrid wants new consumption to be accompanied by timely generation and more flexibility. A developer that helps provide those resources can strengthen the site as well as the Finnish power system.

France prepares sites through a national programme. In the Nordics, a specialist developer can create equivalent value by matching a location with the grid company’s available capacity. I would treat a Nordic site as ready for an investment decision when the grid offer states each stage and date. The land and connection rights must survive a change of ownership.

Ireland kept the door open with a new connection policy

Data centres used 23 per cent of Ireland’s metered electricity in 2025. The Central Statistics Office recorded 7.663 TWh, up from 6.973 TWh in 2024.18

Ireland’s regulator describes data centres as core infrastructure for its technology economy. Its new policy provides a route for further connections and gives investors clearer conditions for new projects.

A new data centre must match its maximum import demand with generation or storage installed on site or nearby. The resource must participate in the wholesale electricity market, where it can also earn revenue.19 The project must cover at least 80 per cent of annual demand with additional renewable generation in Ireland after a transition of up to six years.

The system operator assesses the proposed connection at its actual location. It must also publish information about available capacity and future constraints. Ireland is accepting new data centres on terms that bring the project’s supply plan into the connection decision.

The investment decision begins before power is consumed

A low electricity price helps after the first phase has been energised, by which time the developer has already tied up capital in the site. The cash-flow model should include the years spent securing it and any delay between completed construction and usable power.

A usable network offer sets out how much capacity arrives at each stage and on which date. Any right to curtail supply belongs in the same offer, while the land and permit documents must extend beyond the data-centre building to the connection works.

A specialist developer or landowner can control the site and complete much of this work before a server operator signs. Their position gains value when the commitments can be transferred to the final project. A power producer or storage provider may also make the connection feasible where the grid needs additional supply or flexibility.

The documents have to survive a sale or give the customer direct rights. Without that protection, a queue position with no firm date leaves the investor financing network construction that may occur later than the business plan assumes.

I would still expect most near-term capacity to be built in the United States. A European project can win the next investment when its developer can show a firm connection date and a complete route to construction. France has made site preparation a public programme. In the Nordics, grid companies indicate where capacity may be available and the developer has to secure the corresponding land and connection rights. The investor can then put the projects into the same cash-flow model with dates that the network companies have actually offered.

Investment screen

The evidence behind a deliverable powered site

Connection date
A commitment from the relevant network company, including the work that must finish first.
Firm capacity
The MW available at each stage of the load ramp, with any curtailment condition stated.
Network cost
The network contribution and required security that the project must carry if demand arrives late.
Planning route
The authority responsible for consent and the assessment that remains site-specific.
Local durability
Evidence that the host community and its elected bodies still support the works required.
Land control
Rights over a plot that can accommodate the building and its connection infrastructure.
Customer commitment
A signed commitment from the future operator that supports the planned load ramp before the power reservation expires.
The comparison should place the electricity-price forecast beside this evidence, since delay changes the period before the servers earn revenue.

Sources

Reviewed

  1. 01
    Exclusive: GOP issues stark warning to AI companies

    Axios, 19 August 2026

    Axios reports the wording and political context of a private NRSC memorandum about the Ohio Senate race.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  2. 02
    Ohio Revised Code, section 122.175

    Ohio Laws and Administrative Rules

    The current section authorises qualifying data-centre sales-and-use-tax exemptions.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  3. 03
    Local Impact Statement Report for House Bill 646

    Ohio Legislative Service Commission, 10 June 2026

    The fiscal note records state revenue estimates and the bill’s treatment of local utility services.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  4. 04
    House Bill 646 status

    Ohio Legislature

    The status page records that the bill was recommitted to the Senate Energy Committee on 10 June 2026.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  5. 05
    Data Center Tariff

    AEP Ohio

    AEP explains the current Schedule DCT entry requirements and customer commitments.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  6. 06
    AEP Ohio provides data center contract update

    AEP Ohio, 13 February 2026

    The utility distinguishes initial interest from paid studies and signed collateralised contracts.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  7. 07
    SCC rules in Dominion Energy Virginia biennial review case

    Virginia State Corporation Commission, 25 November 2025

    The decision approves the future GS-5 rate class for qualifying large-load customers in Dominion territory.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  8. 08
    FERC launches targeted action on large-load integration

    Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 18 June 2026

    FERC opened six show-cause proceedings; the orders did not establish a final national tariff.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  9. 09
    Accelerating federal permitting of data center infrastructure

    The White House, 23 July 2025

    The executive order directs federal agencies to accelerate qualifying AI infrastructure projects.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  10. 10
    Energy and AI: Executive summary

    International Energy Agency, 10 April 2025

    The IEA provides the comparative 2024 shares of global data-centre electricity consumption.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  11. 11
    Proposal for a Cloud and AI Development Act

    European Commission, 3 June 2026

    The Commission page identifies CADA as a legislative proposal and links the proposed regulation.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  12. 12
    COM(2026) 502 final: Proposal for a Regulation on cloud and AI development

    European Commission, 3 June 2026

    The proposal contains the capacity objective and the proposed rules for data-centre acceleration zones.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  13. 13
    Cloud and AI Development Act procedure 2026/0138(COD)

    European Parliament

    The procedure file records the proposal in the ordinary legislative procedure.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  14. 14
    L’essor des data centers en France

    RTE

    RTE reports the current project pipeline and its five fast-track connection sites.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  15. 15
    Approval of RTE’s fast-track connection procedure

    French Energy Regulatory Commission, 7 May 2025

    CRE approved the accelerated, cost-reflective connection procedure for the five French sites.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  16. 16
    The data centre industry

    Norwegian Government

    The strategy sets out Norway’s policy position and the national grid constraint.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  17. 17
    Stricter maturity requirements for consumption of at least 100 MW

    Statnett

    Statnett explains the maturity and progress requirements that took effect on 1 July 2026.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  18. 18
    Area plan for South Rogaland and Agder

    Statnett

    The regional plan records reserved data-centre capacity and the grid conditions in Agder and South Rogaland.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  19. 19
    NVE has compiled information about data centres

    Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, 12 August 2026

    NVE reports the data-centre load reserved in Statnett’s grid in August 2026.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  20. 20
    Information on pending connection cases

    Svenska kraftnät

    The current table reports the requested data-centre capacity in Sweden’s connection process.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  21. 21
    Sweden’s AI Strategy

    Government Offices of Sweden

    The strategy sets the government’s objective for competitive computing capacity and AI infrastructure investment.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  22. 22
    Svenska kraftnät enables electrification through mature connection projects

    Svenska kraftnät, 18 June 2026

    Svenska kraftnät reports a shorter queue and new connection tools.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  23. 23
    Electricity consumption is set to increase sharply

    Fingrid, 18 August 2026

    Fingrid reports signed connection agreements and a fast connection opportunity in northern Finland.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  24. 24
    Data Centres Metered Electricity Consumption 2025

    Central Statistics Office Ireland, 7 July 2026

    The CSO reports data centres’ share of Ireland’s metered electricity consumption in 2025.

    Checked 23 August 2026

  25. 25
    Decision on new electricity connection policy for data centres

    Commission for Regulation of Utilities, 12 December 2025

    The CRU decision sets the current requirements for new Irish data-centre connections.

    Checked 23 August 2026